It has long been argued by the right wing Hindutva ideologues that:
- After the exchange of population between India and Pakistan in 1947, 15% of the total population of West Pakistan was Hindu.
- Since 1947 the population share of Pakistani Hindus came down drastically from 15% to the present day 1.6%.
In a recent article published on various websites Prof. Saswati Sarkar wrote:
“let me first start with startling facts that should have by now been well known to an Indian audience in normal course. When Pakistan was created in 1947, Hindus constituted about 15% of the population of West Pakistan (current Pakistan); by 1998 it is about 1.6%  – the population has declined by about 90% in about 50 years. This decimation is the outcome of sustained legal and social discrimination ever since the creation of Pakistan.”
~ Professor Saswati Sarkar , Dept. of Electrical and Systems Eng., University of Pennsylvania
To support this claim Professor Saswati Sarkar has provided a link to the Hindu American foundation website here. But do these startling claims made by the Hindu American Foundation and Prof Sarkar stand up to scrutiny? In this article I will present various documentary evidences to try and understand the reality of the population numbers of Hindus in present day Pakistan.
Three academics from some of the best educational institutions in the world came together to study the migratory flow of populations after the partition of India. In their paper they wrote this:
“In Pakistan, since we know ex-post that almost all Hindus/Sikhs moved, it is easy to identify the potential movers in 1931, and say with some confidence that Muslims in Pakistan in 1931 compromise the non-movers in 1931. We cannot say this for India and Bangladesh since only some Muslims/Hindus moved. The percentage Hindus/Sikhs in Pakistan dropped from 17% in 1931 to 2% in 1951. The minority numbers for India and Bangladesh are 12% to 9% and 29% to 21%. Clearly a large number of Muslims stayed back in India and a large number of Hindus stayed back in Bangladesh (until 1951).”
(Page 7, Footnote 9)
The Partition of India: Demographic consequences by Prashant Bhardwaj, Asim Khwaja & Atif Mian (Exhibit A)
This is by far the best academic study that I could find on the subject. In this study the academicians have covered a wide range of issues that impacted migration during the partition of India. This paper is based on the district wise tabulated data of 1931 census of undivided India and the 1951 census of India and Pakistan.
As per the 1931 census, Hindus and Sikhs had a total share of 17% of the total population in the districts that later became West Pakistan. There is no reason to believe that this population ratio changed until the partition in 1947.
To verify the census figures I had to look for another source of data against which these figures can be compared. I searched through newspaper archives to look for migration figures from the time of the Partition to get an idea of the number of Hindus and Sikhs who left West Pakistan.
According to this Reuters report (Exhibit B) published in 1953 a total of 7.5 million Hindus and Sikhs migrated from East and West Pakistan and settled in India by 1951. As per the census carried out by India in 1951 a total of 2.5 million Hindus entered into India from East Pakistan (Bangladesh). This means that out of the total migration of 7.5 million people into India, 5 million entered from West Pakistan and the remaining 2.5 million entered from East Pakistan.
This figure can also be corroborated from another news published in 1949 (Exhibit C). The ministry of rehabilitation established to help the refugees took a census and estimated the number of refugees from West Pakistan to be 5 million. Notice the number of migrants from East Pakistan (Bangladesh) were around 2 million in 1949 and this number swelled to 2.5 million by 1951.
The number Hindus and Sikhs who left West Pakistan were replaced by almost the same number of Muslims who left India. This means that the overall population of West Pakistan remained the same. This is supported by the initial reports of migration that were published in December 1947 (Exhibit D). As per this report out of the total 8.5 million people who crossed Punjab border 4,362,000 were non Muslims. Later this number swelled to 5 million as migrations continued.
As per the census of 1951 the total population of West Pakistan was around 34 million. 5 million Hindus and Sikhs who left West Pakistan would have made 14.7% of that population.
The study claims that 2% of Hindus still remained in Pakistan even after Partition. Lets add 2% to the 14.7 % and the final figure comes to 16.7% which is very close to the 17% as claimed in the paper presented by the academicians. The numbers add up.
The reporting of that time reflected the fact that almost all Hindus of Pakistan lived in East Bengal. There was only a tiny minority of Hindus that existed in West Pakistan (Exhibit E).
According to the 1998 census figures of Pakistan the total population share of Hindus is 1.85% including the scheduled castes (not 1.60% as claimed by HAF). Prof Sarkar also argues that many Hindus in Pakistan hide their religious identity due to fear of persecution. So according to her claim the population share of Hindus may be much higher than 1.85%.
Going by this report many Dalit Hindus have converted to Christianity in Pakistan due to the efforts of missionary groups. This is plausible because we have seen similar conversions in India. This means that 1.59% Christian population of Pakistan also includes some erstwhile Hindus.
Looking at the numbers and the supporting documents we can safely conclude that the the population share of Hindus in present day Pakistan has not shown a decline as is being claimed by the Hindutva ideologues.
It is very important to highlight the plight of minorities in Pakistan who face discrimination and persecution and this must done on the basis of facts. There are many authentic reports that can be used to support the fact that minorities face hardships in Pakistan. Misrepresentation of facts does not help the cause.